126 (edited by merlz42 2012-09-21 04:53:09)

Re: Orders Shipping List

Looking at the orders that have been filled, and ignoring any that are obviously out of order as outliers it seems that they are advancing 50 orders +/- 10 per day. Given this assumption, they should be right around order #910 now. People who post about ordering recently quote orders in the range #4500. Assuming a constant proportion of orders are printers, and printer production stays constant we can work out that this is approximately 70 working days or 14 weeks, give or take 2 weeks. As far as I understand, the main issues causing the long wait have been a holdup with the start of production, not a lack of production.

This is just my projection and I don't have all that many numbers to go on but I'm hopeful they're approximately right.  There's also reason to believe later order numbers will advance faster due to more production and a lower proportion of printer orders to other orders (like ABS). So the numbers above _should_ represent the worst-case scenario and the actual one will be better.

127

Re: Orders Shipping List

Order ID#: 1870
Ordered on June, 5, 2012
Pro Model

I got all excited two days ago when I saw an "Order Update" email that something had shipped.  I was a tad bit bummed when I saw that it was my order of filament, but at least that'll be here all ready for my printer when it arrives.

Looking forward to receiving the Solidoodle!  I already have a nice space carved out for it on my desk along with a free spot in the power strip.  ;-)

If anyone's curious, here are the details for the filament order:
Order ID: 3607
Ordered on August 16, 2012

Brad

128

Re: Orders Shipping List

Well, that must have been for a separate order.  My order for a spare length of filament was on the solidoodle order and mine's  2259.  They'll hopefully be shipping mine with the printer so I don't have one before the other.

Still waiting, but I know it'll be worth it.

129

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Oh, my filament order was definitely a separate order.  When I saw the email from Solidoodle I just jumped to the wrong conclusion that it was the printer and not the filament.  My wishful thinking got the better of me.  I did however get the delivery notification about an hour ago for the filament.  It's sitting on my porch just waiting for me to come home.

130

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My filament from Solidoodle arrived yesterday, the day after the Solidoodle arrived. Ordered the filament on Aug. 18.

131

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merlz42 wrote:

it seems that they are advancing 50 orders +/- 10 per day.

10-15/day, not 50... from the 14th to the 21st of this month, they made less than 100, putting the speed at around 16/day (assuming the 6-day work week they originally planned).

From the 7th to the 14th, only 50 printers were made/shipped.  So speeds are increasing, but nowhere near 50/day.

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MacGyverS2000 wrote:
merlz42 wrote:

it seems that they are advancing 50 [per week] orders +/- 10 per day.

10-15/day, not 50... from the 14th to the 21st of this month, they made less than 100, putting the speed at around 16/day (assuming the 6-day work week they originally planned).

From the 7th to the 14th, only 50 printers were made/shipped.  So speeds are increasing, but nowhere near 50/day.

you may want to re-read that.

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Actually I was counting order numbers, not printers made. The numbers people report indicate there are a significant number of orders which are not printers (either have been cancelled, or have been plastic or other orders).  So the order numbers advance by about that much per day. This is just basic guesswork and I wouldn't be confident in those numbers until another 5 or so people report printers shipped and we can confirm the numbers.

134 (edited by Aldo 2012-09-23 14:16:30)

Re: Orders Shipping List

Order ID: #1758

Date Added: 31/05/2012

Still pending.

Orders made at the 8th of may had been shipped 2 days ago. So hopefully it will be shipped in the middle of October.

135

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Two days ago, support said on the solidoodle google group that they should complete may orders "by the end of next week".
I want to believe it but I have my doubts.

136

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I think it sounds about right. My order #827, placed May 7, arrived 6 days ago.

137 (edited by maryla 2012-09-24 12:06:34)

Re: Orders Shipping List

My order is #1400 and it's only on for May 20th. It took them two months to get to about #900 and that's 500 orders before mine.  I'm aware that all orders are not printers, but if we assume a fairly constant proportion of printer orders, let's say 50% (since they've shipped about 500 printers so far), then they've got 250 printers to go just to get to mine, which again is only from the 20th. In less than a week. I know they've been ramping up production, but still, that seems a bit optimistic to me (but I'd love to be proven wrong).

138

Re: Orders Shipping List

#827   was placed 05.07 and shipped at the 09.17
#1400 was placed 05.20
#1758 was placed 05.31

Out of 900 Orders 500 are with printers.

so that are a totalof 55.5%

Production started at 10th of Juli.
#500 was produced at 21th September.

this are 10.26 weeks meaning they have produced 48.73 printers a week.

August the 14th tha production was at 18 printers a week. (At least the blog post could have meant that).

So...

71.83 days equal X   printers a week
34.42 days equal 18 printers a week

If you think about it, their volume should be at about 150 printers a week. So the newer orders should get processed faster than the older ones. But I doubt the 150+ printers/week.

I'm pretty shure the different models are randomising the orders. Basic-model orders could get processed faster than Pro-model orders.

139 (edited by Mileu 2012-09-24 11:01:11)

Re: Orders Shipping List

I guess I'll have better luck with you guys:

Based on my order number, any clear idea of when I should expect this printer at my doorstep?

Order ID: 1988
on 2012/06/11

Last time I checked with them (the 19th), they said it would be shipped in three weeks.
I live in Belgium, I think no more than two weeks should be added for delivery time.
Thanks.

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Id say with the trend in the blog posts the weekly is very roughly between 50-100 weekly closer to 75 id assume and consistently rising. I've definitely accepted the wait time ahead of me, its only the anticipation that'll get me in the end. Sad to say I'm 4 weeks in and already have the panelolu here and waiting.

141 (edited by Jon 2012-09-24 17:07:13)

Re: Orders Shipping List

Mileu:

The one thing I've had hammered into me after 6 promised and missed deadlines is that you cannot bank on the estimates given by support.  While I don't think there is a willful conspiracy, there seems to be a sort of institutionalized optimism about how much production will ramp up "next week." 

Your best bet is most likely to take your invoice number (not your order number) and based on the latest reported number of printers shipped: [(invoice number) - (latest estimated number of printers shipped)] / (worst estimate of printers shipped per week, call it 50 right now).

So if your invoice number is 900, the latest estimated number of printers shipped is "just under 500" (from the 9/21 blog).  (900-500)/50 = 8 weeks.  While this may be an outside estimate, it will at least allow you to realistically manage your expectations.

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devilman2075 wrote:

Id say with the trend in the blog posts the weekly is very roughly between 50-100 weekly closer to 75 id assume and consistently rising. I've definitely accepted the wait time ahead of me, its only the anticipation that'll get me in the end. Sad to say I'm 4 weeks in and already have the panelolu here and waiting.

I'd find it interesting to find out if you actually get your printer 8-10 weeks from ordering.

I'll admit that it's a bit unfair to still be thinking 8-10 weeks for my unit ordered mid july since we know that there have been problems since then.

but, they've updated the FAQ since then, and repeated the 8-10 weeks of you order now statement plenty of times!
it'd be interesting to see if this is yet more unfounded optimism.


That said, I'm now at the end of week 11. whilst I have been ansi to say the least about my expected order time I didn't see the justification in troubling the company before the date that I should have started to expect my machine.

now that I'm clear outside of the worst possible scenario agreed when I first ordered my printer, I thought I'd ask.
I'll update here with what they say when I hear back.

my order number is 1290.
with less than 500 made in the past three months, does that signify it'll be another three months before I can expect my unit?

(1290 - 500) / 50 suggests that the order is still 15 weeks away.

which is my biggest gripe, I've read the blogs and received update after update. all of which turned out to be optimistic.

my printer is pessimistically 15 weeks away, (nearly twice what they tell you the time will be to get your printer if you order today).
even if we say that only 55% of orders are printers, that still make 7 - 8 weeks wait ahead, (whilst again they still advertise 8-10 weeks for delivery of printers ordered today.

I would say that I do still have some faith in this company as other people are apparently getting their printers,
BUT, given that the best estimates put printers order months ago as having to wait any time between 7 weeks, (November) and 15 weeks (January next year)
whilst their blog is still saying order today only 8-10 weeks wait, telling you that you should order around now to receive the unit before Christmas.

and it's that constant, constant, institutionalised optimism, that makes me think it's not just naivety, it's really an outright lie. (I wouldn't even be so nice as to call it wilful conspiracy)

I mentioned on the google groups forum before. the guys running this show are professional engineers, each with past careers in high tech companies, at least one of them has a history in the fused filament printer market. this isn't like these guys have gone in blind. providing at least something of a guess that's within 10% of when you might actually get the printer shouldn't be impossible.

I'm not saying I want the hours minutes seconds till it hits my door step.
just when do they reckon it might ship

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Re: Orders Shipping List

Where can I find the "invoice" number? I only see the Ordering Number.

I have ordered May 31th. There was a "lead time" of 8 Weeks. They started production in Juli.

I think in Q1 of 2013 they will be able to build them fast enough to actually beat 8 Weeks of wait time.

Be confident... we are some dudes waiting for their toys.

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Jon wrote:

Your best bet is most likely to take your invoice number (not your order number)

Interesting, I didn't know about the invoice number. According to you it's (roughly) the printer number?
Mine is 631 (order #1400 May 20th). So it looks like my estimation is wrong and there's only 130 printers to go before mine.

@Aldo I found my invoice number in the confirmation email.

Aldo wrote:

I have ordered May 31th. There was a "lead time" of 8 Weeks. They started production in Juli.

That's the one thing that makes me feel a bit cheated. I have to admit that when I ordered, it wasn't clear to me that they hadn't even STARTED production. Sure it said "pre-order", but that's still what it says now.
And seeing them advertise 8-10 weeks now... seriously guys. They should take it "out of stock" until they've reasonably cleared their backlog.

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I doubt they could afford  that.  It's a startup.. the money has to flow, or they are in big trouble. I actuallythink their tactics are quite okay. Well it's not okay to cheat with the lead time. But it's not like anybody actually needs the 3d printer for work or other serious buisness. That's why I wrote the Toy part...

As long as they can build it cheap AND assembled.. I'm in,.. even when it takes 6 Months to deliver.

146 (edited by Jon 2012-09-24 19:29:49)

Re: Orders Shipping List

Danny:
I believe you are looking at your order number rather than your invoice number.  The invoice number can be found in your confirmation email or on the Solidoodle website by logging in and checking your order history.  The last 4 digits of the invoice number should give you your approximate position in the queue.

It was once explained by support that an order number is generated just by adding something to your shopping cart, even if you don't follow through with the purchase.  That number is then effectively retired even though it may not represent a completed transaction.  On the other hand, the invoice number represents an actual completed transaction.  Apparently these transactions can also include filament sold separately from a printer, so the invoice number is likely a little higher than your actual printer number.

Maryla:
I ordered my printer on May 12th with an invoice ending in 471.  Given the latest blog post listing the number of printers shipped as "just under 500", one could assume that my printer is about to be shipped (if it hasn't already).  This is correlated by my latest missed ship date of early last week provided to me by support.  If that is the case, based on your invoice number (631-471)/50 = 3.2 weeks should be your wait time.  Please bear in mind that there are a number of assumptions baked into that estimate, so take it with a grain of salt.

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Jon wrote:

..."just under 500", one could assume that my printer is about to be shipped (if it hasn't already).  This is correlated by the most recent missed estimated ship date of early last week provided to me by support.  If that is the case, based on your invoice number (631-471)/50 = 3.2 weeks should be your wait time.

I found my number: 803

So my guess with end of October wasn't that bad I assume.  Plus 2 weeks shipping... (Yey Urop)

148

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Aldo wrote:

...  Plus 2 weeks shipping... (Yey Urop)


even for US to Canada, it's 2 weeks shipping... so don't be sad..

149 (edited by HelmutK 2012-09-24 19:03:13)

Re: Orders Shipping List

Now if you also want to talk Serial #'s to throw another variable in the loop. Mine serial # is less than 400. This being with an order # of 827 placed 5/7. So it looks like the printers shipped may be less that 50% of the number of orders.
But then again I think support said the serial #'s are not shipped in order.

150 (edited by Jon 2012-09-24 21:41:20)

Re: Orders Shipping List

HelmutK wrote:

Mine serial # is less than 400. This being with an order # of 827 placed 5/7.

HelmutK:
Would you mind looking up your invoice number (rather than your order number) in the original confirmation email?  Comparing your invoice number to your serial number could prove useful in attempting to estimate deliveries.